The Fate of "Trumpism"
The Fate of "Trumpism"
Rant #18 (Opinion)
March 23, 2020
Rant #18 (Opinion)
March 23, 2020
The future of what reluctantly gets the label of 'Trumpism' has increasingly represented a topic of much speculation among those who spend their time thinking about politics. I have a few tentative thoughts on that, based mostly on sheer guesswork. Many have argued that after leaving office, the Republican Party will 'snap out' of its Trump-induced spell; politicians will write off their former support for him in one way or another to avoid association with that trainwreck. While that sounds like an appetizing outcome to me, that is very unlikely, in my opinion. The man has amassed too much popularity for him to just step off the stage and fade into the background. The vicious and aggressive tweeting he does will in and of itself continue to effect the public discourse and news cycles long after leaving office.
If Trump loses in November, after a lengthy dispute about the integrity of the results, claiming 'deepstate' ballet rigging and any crazy conspiracy theory he can cook up, then he will run for a Senator in 2022. Somewhat recently, he changed his primary residence to Florida, which foreshadows his future intentions. Hillary Clinton legally relocated to New York just months before a Senate bid, despite never previously living in the state. Politicians do this all the time. If Trump loses in November and then makes a Senate bid in 2022, I really hope that he either:
A) loses the GOP primary, runs as independent then loses (and fragments the right wing vote, allowing a Democrat to win);
B) wins the GOP primary and then loses to a Democrat who isn't even that well-known.
In the event of a Senate bid by Donald Trump, Democrats nationwide would happily pour millions into disgracing the former president there. Yet Trump entanglement with US politics in the future doesn't stop with Donald--that family will likely be a legacy, like the Longs. Huey Long in many ways resembled Trump's style of appearing anti-elite, criticizing the media, corruption and great personal popularity. Following his assassination in 1935, that name went on to continuously appear on ballots in Louisiana for decades upon decades. It would not surprise me the least bit if any or all of this president's 3 'main' kids (Ivanka, Eric and Don Jr) as well as Jared Kushner will run for Senate at some point. Not the House of Representatives, though--it's not prominent enough. If any of them officially move to different states, the red flags go up high. New York would never elect any Trump-affiliated candidate, at least not under current conditions. A Senate career could foreseeably precede an eventual presidential run by one of them: if I had to predict I'd say Ivanka, so that the Republican Party can (symbolically) say "look! We have a woman!" She has a facade of being more tolerant than her father or the others, though I've heard anecdotally that from behind the scenes she is actually vicious and manipulative, maybe one of the only people on earth (along with Rudy Giuliani and Vladimir Putin) who can bend this president to do what they want.
The memory of Trump kind of parallels whether or not the GOP takes the 'snaps out' approach to Trump's legacy or continues to revere him. His legacy will likely receive great praise from Republicans to the tune of Ronald Reagan, despite Trump not actually accomplishing almost anything to date. Ideologically, will the GOP move from its current dabbling with paleo- back to neo-conservative? Prior to Trump's run, the Republican Party for the most part undisputedly held a neo-conservative platform. Trump's massive popularity may change that for some time. Perhaps it causes a split, leading to a Trumpian faction forming within the GOP, alongside a milder and saner one led by Mitt Romney or someone. With the worldwide trend of isolationism, nationalism and opposing globalism growing, the Trumpian variety of paleo-conservatism's persistence might make itself apparent. Still, much of what Donald Trump brings to the table in terms of rallying up support has to do with him as an individual. A "cult of personality" surrounding Trump makes it difficult to see a lasting and cohesive endurance of what he [says he] stands for. A frantic, scrambled attempt by Republican politicians to establish themselves as the successor to Trump and to secure his blessing as that person will happen after he leaves office, whether it overtakes the entire GOP or not. Given his ego, Trump will take delight in having tons of high-ranking officials groveling to get him to essentially name them as a successor. Yet unless that person can emulate the unique personality type of Donald Trump, their own attempts at massive popularity could reasonably fail and fail hard.
Conversely, there is the scary prospect of an extremely competent, more reserved version of Trump stepping into the political arena after him. A demagogue who can create plausible deniability much better than the current president, by doing things like not tweeting stupid stuff every five minutes. A nationalistic, xenophobic conservative individual demanding loyalty to he himself rising to the most powerful position on earth could prove a catastrophe. Hopefully things do not develop as such.
Either way, it could very well happen that politicians for the next decade or more will boast of their relationship to Trump, citing how they defended him during impeachment and at other times; reciprocally, Trump will serve as a valuable asset to Republican campaigns going forward. Since he loves having huge crowds cheer at every unintelligible statement he makes, chances are that he will gladly hold rallies and the like.
As for who else carries on the Trumpian torch: Mike Pompeo I imagine might make a presidential bid, go run for Senate or stay in a top cabinet position for a future Republican administration--Secretary of State is the third highest executive office after President and Vice President, and I doubt a future president would make him do that again, but perhaps he gets a seat on the NSC or something. Pundits always talks about Nikki Haley emerging on the national stage in the near future, but I don't know enough about her...some have said she represents a rational voice in the GOP, like Trump but more chastened. Previously, in another context at one point I saw her name tossed around as a potential VP pick for Trump's re-election bid to replace Mike Pence. This was months ago; at the moment, I highly, highly doubt Pence will go anywhere. Pence himself is more of a croney, a sidekick, a complementary figure to trump; he was chosen as a bona fide conservative and evangelical hardliner to kind of reel in cred from the religious right back when Trump hadn't yet fully won over that enormous faction of the Republican base. Pence himself leans too much in the way of a classic, religious, right wing conservative than a true Trumper, so he probably will not go on to continue that tradition (though he might vie for the Republican presidential nomination at some point).
Perhaps the cult of personality aspect of Trump's appeal means that after he leaves, nobody else will fill those shoes and that style will go away for now. The type of populism that Trump supposedly stands for (or at least taps into) may be a product of our time, and in a few years become irrelevant. An adaptation of Trump's ideology seems more realistic. I don't know just who will do what, but accusations of fake news, adoption of conspiracy theory narratives by Republican politicians, raging xenophobia, anti-globalism, unilateral decision-making and social regression will remain as resounding pieces of the American right and general political discourse for an unfortunate period of time; at least for the foreseeable future.
Works Cited
-New York Times, Trump changes primary residence to Florida.
-ABC News, Hillary Clinton Senate race, mentioning she recently moved to NY.
-The Advocate, Huey Long/Long Dynasty.
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