Can Bernie Take Texas?
Can Bernie Take Texas?
My Take (Opinion)
Originally February 28, 2020
My Take (Opinion)
Originally February 28, 2020
Could Bernie pull off a win in Texas? No, not on Super Tuesday. I don't mean next week; I mean in November. Conventional wisdom would quickly assert 'no'-- but that dynamic might be changing.
A new poll by the University of Houston in association with Univision and "Latino Decisions" shows some surprising results. Among the 1,004 registered voters they surveyed, 45% said if the election were tomorrow, they would vote for Bernie Sanders--equal to the percentage of respondents who said they would vote for Donald Trump. This leaves 10% undecided, but still. The idea that a Democrat--let alone one regarded as so far left--could do well in Texas comes as a surprise to many Americans. After all, this is the state of George W. Bush. A conservative powerhouse and in some ways an emblem of the right done 'right.' How could this happen?
If you regularly read The Man of Jackistan, then perhaps you've had some insight into this puzzling question. The times they are a'changin'. Transplants from blue states have added to the population of Texas in recent years, as has an enormous influx of Latin American immigrants led to a spike in Hispanic Texans. Trump's anti-immigrant, anti-Mexico, anti-a lot of things rhetoric does not sit well with many among that demographic. The xenophobic, racist policies implemented by this president, with near unanimous support from virtually all of the Republican Party, may very well cement the general political consensus among Hispanic-Americans for decades to come. Which spells out trouble for future GOP candidates there: two-thirds of Texans younger than 19 are Hispanic.
The prospect of a swing state in the South or even a blue Texas may lurk on the horizon. Even now though, it might prove difficult for the Republicans to keep that state--with its enormous share of electoral votes and Congressional districts--on lock. Voter suppression will do exactly as the name implies: it will suppress some votes. Currently, a gun license will count as ID that Texans must show when they go to vote, while a student or school ID does not count. Polling places have moved from college campuses to distant and inconvenient locations. And any ID law in and of itself indirectly discriminates against the younger, poorer, and minorities.
This can only work for so long.
It is worth noting that a simultaneously conducted poll of 1,003 registered voters in Texas by CNN/SSRS showed Sanders falling two percent short of Trump, 46-48%. Most other candidates compared to Trump either lost, tied, or won by no more than 1 point--well within the margin of error. So I don't want to overstate the potential for Democrats to take Texas. It going to Trump would come as no surprise to most, including myself. But even the fact that this discussion is happening shows a radical shift of alignment in American politics, primarily due to demographic factors but also a troubling trickle-down effect exacerbated by Trump's presidency.
You can see these polls and others right here on FiveThirtyEight's website.
Works Cited:
Texas demographics of young people:
Acceptable voter ID in Texas:
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