Black People and Conspiracy Theories, Plus Speculation on Joe Biden's VP Pick
Black People and Conspiracy Theories, Plus Speculation About Biden's VP Pick and the Future of Trumpism
Rant #17(Opinion)
Originally March 22, 2020; Posted March 23, 2020
Rant #17(Opinion)
Originally March 22, 2020; Posted March 23, 2020
Lately, I've thought a lot about something that confuses me. It seems that a lot of Black people believe in conspiracy theories like New World Order, Illuminati, population control--a whole bunch of them. Maybe that's a coincidence, and only overwhelmingly endemic among the Black people that I know. But it makes sense. As a White man, I can only speculate. On the one hand, I can totally see the roots of skepticism and distrust in the system: slavery, "separate but equal" segregation, Blacks being denied mortgages and credit through red-lining, the Tuskegee experiment, police profiling; there is a long history of this government and its elites quite literally conspiring to make life difficult for Blacks. What boggles my mind more than just a proclivity for belief in conspiracy theories is that also, Blacks vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. Like, close to 90% of Black voters go blue in any given election. A whopping 91% of African-Americans voted for Hillary Clinton, according to the Pew Research Center's findings. When you look at Black women, it is almost 100% in some years, amounting to 98% in 2016. That ratio tops virtually any other demographic's consistent support for a single party.
What makes this confusing is that so many of these common conspiracy theories negatively portray policies pursued by the left, if not direclty implicating the Democrats in evil schemes. So like, if you believe these conspiracy theories that ultimately cast the Democrats, big govts, the UN, "socialism," healthcare systems, the Clintons, Joe Biden, et al as the root of evil in this world, but then go on to vote for a Democrat anyway, that doesn't make very much sense. Maybe, while adopting some conspiracy thoeries, many African-Americans are not super fixated on them as their primary driver for political decisionmaking. Also, of course it varies widely and which conspiracies get absorbed differ...but it wouldn't make sense if you genuinely take them all to heart to vote for any Democrats.
However, while they hear those rumors of conspiracies that may seem convincing yet present no direct evidence, they simultaneously see what President Trump says, what Republicans support and what Democrats do, and decide to vote blue on that basis. But Joe Biden is an extremely popular figure in the Black community, what with being Obama's VP and all. Also while Senator from Delaware--a state with a large Black population--he did a lot to help that community. So Biden will easily win 90% or more of Black votes, barring some immense new development or change. But if the Black solidarity behind the Democrats were broken, the GOP would win easily in many presidential elections. Perhaps perpetrating bogus conspiracies will help to shift a crucial number of African-Americans to the right, or at least into the Republican voting bloc. Trump's campaign has openly stated that they are vying for the Black vote this year. And if you watched the last State of the Union address, it included at least 3 parts that on the surface targeted helping Blacks, touting how much Trump has helped them--though to be honest, I think strategically it was aimed at White suburban women. If Trump can highlight how he is pouring billions into Historically Black Colleges and that he helped one little girl get into a charter school in Philly, bragging about what were then record low Black unemployment numbers, bringing all that up is supposed to make middle-class White women in the suburbs think "hmm...everyone says he's racist, but look at what he has done!" Thus making it less morally discouraging to vote for him. Because most White women in suburbs don't know how African-Americans actually live. But Black people do (obviously), and they ain't dumbies--they know what he stands for. More than 8 out of 10 say he is a racist. 9 out of 10 disapprove of Trump's job, and 58% say that Trump is very bad for African-Americans. In the events that have taken place since two months ago, the perception of Trump among the Black community likely has declined even further. Yet the Trump team continues to press for their votes. A lot of the campaign's messaging is aimed at (and slightly effective with) Black men, but not Black women, who remain the cornerstone of the Democratic Party's base.
Speaking of which: that makes me think about who Joe Biden will choose as his running mate, given the extremely high likelihood that he will win the Democratic nomination. Personally I was really, really hoping he'd pick Pete Buttigieg. Mayor Pete is so intelligent and savvy, I'd be so happy to have him in the White House, being groomed to eventually move up when Biden drops. Whether Biden died in the 1st term, or a 2nd, or miraculously makes it through to 2029 and after that running for president, having Buttigieg in the White House would be a sigh of relief. While the hype about Biden's declining mental condition largely has to do with the fact that he has struggled with a lifelong stuttering problem, as well as a lifelong inclination to saying the wrong thing and making verbal gaffes. Still, with his age and appearance, the fear of a rapid decline in mental ability or outright death haunts me if he is to run, let alone occupy the office of president.
The hopes of a Vice President Buttigieg disappeared during the last debate, when Biden said he's going to pick a chick as his running mate. Stacey Abrams has been floated frequently as a possible pick. Particularly with her, it is very possible that the Dems could flip Georgia, and most likely North Carolina too---last time the GOP broke through the blue wall of the Midwest, so this time the Democrats make an incursion into the Solid South. Trade one upset for another. I love it. Yet as discussed earlier, Biden totally has the Black vote on lock--as a Democrat in and of itself, but especially with his reputation. Picking a Black Vice President doesn't necessarily add much from a strategic standpoint, sans other factors such as her actual competence. And it might turn off a lot of those swing, White working class voters who went for Trump in 2016 after years of voting for Democrats because they hate political correctness, somehow perceiving it as a threat to their livelihood.
Amy Klobuchar never impressed me much, personally. Like personality-wise. In terms of governing style, she definitely acts pragmatic and shrewdly (the good kind of shrewd), and she comes from a swing state. She's also young enough to be viable. People have often thrown out the idea of a Biden-Bernie ticket, or Bernie-Warren or Biden-Warren. That'll never happen though because they're all ancient. The Vice Presient must be young. If the president dies, then Speaker of the House becomes the Vice President. Right now, that would be Nancy Pelosi. But if the GOP took the House this year or in the next midterms, then the VP would be GOP in the event of a presidential death, God forbid. Obviously no Democratic strategist would allow for even the possibility of that. Also, it would be a strategic folly to tap any Democratic Senator for VP, especially any up for re-election. Right now, the balance sits at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats and Democratic-caucusing Senators. The Dems do have a shot at winning the Senate: not a super long shot, but by no means easy either. It would require some luck or a big turn of events. States like Montana might have to vote blue for that to happen (although with former Democratic governor of Montana Steve Bullock running, that looks like it could happen). Even with a little luck, the Democrats might make gains leadign to a 50-50 split. At that point, then having a Democratic in the White House has its most powerful influence on that chamber because the VP acts a tie-breaking vote. The balance of power there remains very delicate though. Holding onto the House and winning the presidency look a lot more likely than gaining the Senate, but there remains 7+ months until the voting, and stranger things have happened. But if the Biden campaign taps a Senator, then that seat becomes open if Biden wins, and open means potentially vulnerable--especially in a swing state like Minnesota, for example.
Whoever he chooses, it will need to help reel in votes that he himself would struggle to win alone. During the campaign, Vice Presidents mainly help the presidential nominee in that way. Just as much can the VP pick hurt the presidential candidate. When John McCain selected Sarah Palin as his running mate in 2008, his campaign probably strategized that she would help attract disaffected women from the Democratic Party after a protracted Democratic primary that led to Barack Obama defeating Hillary Clinton. Instead, John McCain's age became a concern among many voters. Sarah Palin, meanwhile, had virtually no real political experience. Obama barely had any experience either, but Palin did not inspire confidence after she continuously said some really unintelligent things--like, laughably stupid stuff on numerous occasions. So if John McCain were to die in office, Sarah Palin would step up to run the country--with virtually no experience or brain.
Eight years later, when Donald Trump chose Mike Pence as his running mate, he managed to get a good boost within the Republican Party's base. As a traditional conservative and hardcore and very vocal Christian, Mike Pence allowed the Trump campaign to attract evangelical voters into his fold. In an election won by such narrow margins, getting those extras votes may have pushed Trump over the top--though the states which Trump won so narrowly have less notably large evangelical populations. Some of this seems to have done more to (or had the effect of) consolidating Trump's power within his own party. After a lot of resistance within the Republican establishment, Trump essentially managed to tell uncertain Republicans that with the religious flock on his side, and fiscal conservatives comfortable with a billionaire businessman running the country too, that the GOP establishment might soon become the minority if they didn't get on board with him.
Whoever Joe Biden picks, hopefully he chooses wisely. Following an election where Trump lost to Hillary by 3 million raw votes but won with less than 100,000 across three states (all under 1% of those states' votes), the ability for the running mate to push the Biden campaign over the edge is crucial. Widespread appeal means less than the preference of swing voters in a couple of specific states--which doesn't sound like the healthiest or most effective way to run a nationwide election, but our politics work like that. Why do we have an electoral vote? A conspiracy by the elite, of sorts. The Founders made it as a tripwire so that the laypeople wouldn't choose somebody ridiculous, incompetent, or loyal to foreign leaders for the presidency. Unfortunately, even with that system in place, we got someone who hits all three of those checkmarks.
Works Cited
-Pew Research Center, 2016 presidential vote by demographic.
-CNN, 8 in 10 Blacks say Trump is a racist.
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