Bernie Burning Opponents In Polls
Bernie Burning Opponents In Polls
Rant #2 (Opinion)
Originally: February 19, 2020
Polls often fluctuate wildly and, after the upset in 2016, many question the legitimacy of polls altogether. Admittedly, the 2016 presidential election that saw Donald Trump become president shocked nearly everyone--including Trump himself, given that in the days leading up to the election he started decrying it as 'rigged.' The polling agencies have since attempted to correct these mistakes, some of which include changing their models to give more weight to non-college educated people, who don't answer surveys as frequently, among other tweaks to their methodology. So it seems like people discredit polls too much these days, given their typical accuracy. Also, there is more than just one polling agency--some do a better job than others. For example, Rasmussen Reports leans heavily toward Republicans.
With all that said, acknowledging the fallibility of opinion polling, a slew of interesting ones came out today, all of which relate to Bernie Sanders.
A total of six polls surveying Democratic primary voters nationwide all seem to show the favorability of Bernie Sanders: he leads his next competitor by anywhere from 3 to 18 points. Keep in mind that throughout the last year, Biden has maintained a lead never really consistently breaching into double digits, occasionally evening out with a momentary frontrunner only to once again take a slight lead. While the 3 point lead over Biden in the Harris X poll doesn't account for much, the 15 to 18 point leads in three surveys done by ABC News/Washington Post looks impressive. Still, in terms of actual share of those surveyed, Sanders has just 33% in his best poll. This race has been crowded with so many somewhat viable candidates that a quarter or a third is enough to become the most popular. As more and more candidates drop out, the gap will likely widen.
However, the theory currently holds that Bernie has the almost undivided support of progressives, while the moderates are sprinkled about the numerous middle-lane options. But just like Trump securing the Republican nomination in 2016 despite rarely getting an outright majority of primary voters, Bernie could make his way onto the ticket without ever actually winning over more than 35 or 40% of Democratic voters. Normally, candidates not faring too well would drop out after the first few contests (though in general, the past few Democratic presidential primaries have been fairly drawn out). However, Michael Bloomberg entered this year's race quite late, not even appearing on the ballot until Super Tuesday--a very unusual gamble that appears to be working somewhat as polls have put him in 2nd or 3rd place nationwide. Because of Bloomberg's late entry, other candidates may stay in the race later than they would have under other circumstances. Given that dynamic, Bernie may find himself with the most pledged delegates after a long and arduous and potentially damaging primary battle around the country.
So can Bernie win moderates, swing voters, people who don't live in the Northeast or West Coast and aren't White? Based partially on some recent polling, I'd say, yes.
South Carolina often tests a candidate's appeal among Black voters (who make up about 60% of the Democratic primary voters in the state). Also, South Carolina's Democrats are thought to be on the moderate side when compared to, say, New Hampshire. This past year, Biden has always maintained a double-digit lead over the next competitor in South Carolina, given his historic popularity among African-Americans. After faring worse than expected in Iowa and New Hampshire, many questioned whether the former Vice President would hang onto that overwhelming support by the time the Palmetto State goes to vote. Well, a Change Research poll has Biden and Bernie tied, while a University of Massachusetts Lowell poll gives the former VP a 2 point lead over the Vermont senator--likely within the margin of error. Pollsters collect data over a number of days too, so it is very possible that Biden's support has progressively slipped with each passing day. Nonetheless, according to the most recent numbers, Biden clasps onto a thin lead there.
What about nationwide, can a 78 year old self-described democratic socialist really win the presidential election outright? Maybe in another time the answer would be a solid no, but given Trump's just...terribleness overall...it looks plausible that Sanders could pull it off. Match up polls take two candidates and say "if the election were tomorrow, who would you vote for?" Over the last many months, these polls have consistently shown Bernie Sanders winning over Trump, along with Biden, and frequently other Democratic potentials too. Biden has generally won with a more comfortable margin than Bernie or others in these hypothetical scenarios.
As of yesterday though, major polls have shown that Bernie now beats Trump by a larger lead than Biden. Bloomberg, meanwhile, sometimes tops Bernie's ability to beat Trump, other times not. Of the 5 sets of polls released by 4 different groups, Sanders beats Trump by 3, 6, 11, 5, and 4 points. Bloomberg beats Trump by 4, 7, 9, 5, and 6. Not surprisingly, most Democrats beat or tie with the incumbent president. Nonetheless, this idea that somebody as progressive as Sanders can't win does not seem necessarily true.
Yet I've followed the polls posted daily on FiveThirtyEight.com and have seen that while Bernie often wins over Trump by a margin close to that of Biden, his numbers in key swing states appears lackluster, whereas Biden performed better there. Perhaps Bernie's standing in these national polls reflects a larger amount of voters in states that already reliably vote blue choosing him. Unfortunately, in American politics, as we saw in 2016, a candidate can win literally millions more votes than the other yet still lose. In fact, 2 of the 3 Republican presidential wins of the 21st century came while losing the popular vote. Still, this possibility haunts Democrats going into 2020.
The state-level Survey USA polls from today have eased those anxieties just slightly. While the massive Bernie lead over Trump in California should surprise no one, the fact that he beats Trump 50-45 is genuinely unexpected. To be fair, Bloomberg and Biden also beat Bernie in this projection. North Carolina voted for Obama in 2008 and has inched towards swing state status for a while now. Yet the fact that a progressive like Bernie can win there gives hope to his prospects, which spells out good news whether you love Bernie Sanders or you hate Trump yet don't lean too far left. These numbers also show a boggling but also common sense fact of politics: that ideology doesn't alone determine all voters' preference. This is shown here by the fact that moderates like Bloomberg and Biden could beat Trump by a 1 point higher and lower margin (respectively) to Bernie, while another progressive, Warren, can lose to Trump by 4 points, coming up 9 points shy of Sanders.
Polls will go up and down and upside down leading to November until it makes every American nauseous enough not to do it again for 4 years (1 or 2 years for the strong-stomached). A single poll doesn't totally reflect reality, though a collection of data by reliable pollsters can be indicative of a trend. That trend appears not to favor President Trump. He does have the incumbency advantage, a united Republican Party and a strong economy to boast about, and his sheer disregard for truth and decency and an unhinged willingness to tamper with the integrity of elections all help him too. Yet the scandals, the tweets, the general ineptitude of the man hopefully will lead up to the day that Americans finally say to him: "you're fired."
If you'd like to see up to date election and president approval polls, go to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Rant #2 (Opinion)
Originally: February 19, 2020
Polls often fluctuate wildly and, after the upset in 2016, many question the legitimacy of polls altogether. Admittedly, the 2016 presidential election that saw Donald Trump become president shocked nearly everyone--including Trump himself, given that in the days leading up to the election he started decrying it as 'rigged.' The polling agencies have since attempted to correct these mistakes, some of which include changing their models to give more weight to non-college educated people, who don't answer surveys as frequently, among other tweaks to their methodology. So it seems like people discredit polls too much these days, given their typical accuracy. Also, there is more than just one polling agency--some do a better job than others. For example, Rasmussen Reports leans heavily toward Republicans.
With all that said, acknowledging the fallibility of opinion polling, a slew of interesting ones came out today, all of which relate to Bernie Sanders.
A total of six polls surveying Democratic primary voters nationwide all seem to show the favorability of Bernie Sanders: he leads his next competitor by anywhere from 3 to 18 points. Keep in mind that throughout the last year, Biden has maintained a lead never really consistently breaching into double digits, occasionally evening out with a momentary frontrunner only to once again take a slight lead. While the 3 point lead over Biden in the Harris X poll doesn't account for much, the 15 to 18 point leads in three surveys done by ABC News/Washington Post looks impressive. Still, in terms of actual share of those surveyed, Sanders has just 33% in his best poll. This race has been crowded with so many somewhat viable candidates that a quarter or a third is enough to become the most popular. As more and more candidates drop out, the gap will likely widen.
However, the theory currently holds that Bernie has the almost undivided support of progressives, while the moderates are sprinkled about the numerous middle-lane options. But just like Trump securing the Republican nomination in 2016 despite rarely getting an outright majority of primary voters, Bernie could make his way onto the ticket without ever actually winning over more than 35 or 40% of Democratic voters. Normally, candidates not faring too well would drop out after the first few contests (though in general, the past few Democratic presidential primaries have been fairly drawn out). However, Michael Bloomberg entered this year's race quite late, not even appearing on the ballot until Super Tuesday--a very unusual gamble that appears to be working somewhat as polls have put him in 2nd or 3rd place nationwide. Because of Bloomberg's late entry, other candidates may stay in the race later than they would have under other circumstances. Given that dynamic, Bernie may find himself with the most pledged delegates after a long and arduous and potentially damaging primary battle around the country.
So can Bernie win moderates, swing voters, people who don't live in the Northeast or West Coast and aren't White? Based partially on some recent polling, I'd say, yes.
South Carolina often tests a candidate's appeal among Black voters (who make up about 60% of the Democratic primary voters in the state). Also, South Carolina's Democrats are thought to be on the moderate side when compared to, say, New Hampshire. This past year, Biden has always maintained a double-digit lead over the next competitor in South Carolina, given his historic popularity among African-Americans. After faring worse than expected in Iowa and New Hampshire, many questioned whether the former Vice President would hang onto that overwhelming support by the time the Palmetto State goes to vote. Well, a Change Research poll has Biden and Bernie tied, while a University of Massachusetts Lowell poll gives the former VP a 2 point lead over the Vermont senator--likely within the margin of error. Pollsters collect data over a number of days too, so it is very possible that Biden's support has progressively slipped with each passing day. Nonetheless, according to the most recent numbers, Biden clasps onto a thin lead there.
What about nationwide, can a 78 year old self-described democratic socialist really win the presidential election outright? Maybe in another time the answer would be a solid no, but given Trump's just...terribleness overall...it looks plausible that Sanders could pull it off. Match up polls take two candidates and say "if the election were tomorrow, who would you vote for?" Over the last many months, these polls have consistently shown Bernie Sanders winning over Trump, along with Biden, and frequently other Democratic potentials too. Biden has generally won with a more comfortable margin than Bernie or others in these hypothetical scenarios.
As of yesterday though, major polls have shown that Bernie now beats Trump by a larger lead than Biden. Bloomberg, meanwhile, sometimes tops Bernie's ability to beat Trump, other times not. Of the 5 sets of polls released by 4 different groups, Sanders beats Trump by 3, 6, 11, 5, and 4 points. Bloomberg beats Trump by 4, 7, 9, 5, and 6. Not surprisingly, most Democrats beat or tie with the incumbent president. Nonetheless, this idea that somebody as progressive as Sanders can't win does not seem necessarily true.
Yet I've followed the polls posted daily on FiveThirtyEight.com and have seen that while Bernie often wins over Trump by a margin close to that of Biden, his numbers in key swing states appears lackluster, whereas Biden performed better there. Perhaps Bernie's standing in these national polls reflects a larger amount of voters in states that already reliably vote blue choosing him. Unfortunately, in American politics, as we saw in 2016, a candidate can win literally millions more votes than the other yet still lose. In fact, 2 of the 3 Republican presidential wins of the 21st century came while losing the popular vote. Still, this possibility haunts Democrats going into 2020.
The state-level Survey USA polls from today have eased those anxieties just slightly. While the massive Bernie lead over Trump in California should surprise no one, the fact that he beats Trump 50-45 is genuinely unexpected. To be fair, Bloomberg and Biden also beat Bernie in this projection. North Carolina voted for Obama in 2008 and has inched towards swing state status for a while now. Yet the fact that a progressive like Bernie can win there gives hope to his prospects, which spells out good news whether you love Bernie Sanders or you hate Trump yet don't lean too far left. These numbers also show a boggling but also common sense fact of politics: that ideology doesn't alone determine all voters' preference. This is shown here by the fact that moderates like Bloomberg and Biden could beat Trump by a 1 point higher and lower margin (respectively) to Bernie, while another progressive, Warren, can lose to Trump by 4 points, coming up 9 points shy of Sanders.
Polls will go up and down and upside down leading to November until it makes every American nauseous enough not to do it again for 4 years (1 or 2 years for the strong-stomached). A single poll doesn't totally reflect reality, though a collection of data by reliable pollsters can be indicative of a trend. That trend appears not to favor President Trump. He does have the incumbency advantage, a united Republican Party and a strong economy to boast about, and his sheer disregard for truth and decency and an unhinged willingness to tamper with the integrity of elections all help him too. Yet the scandals, the tweets, the general ineptitude of the man hopefully will lead up to the day that Americans finally say to him: "you're fired."
If you'd like to see up to date election and president approval polls, go to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
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